Tuesday, August 2, 2016
Upheaval in Turkey: What Comes Next?
By: Stewart Brennan
World United News
A significant rift appears to have opened up between NATO member Turkey and the United States over the July 15th 2016 failed coup on the Erdogan government. The coup has not only sent shock waves throughout Turkey but indeed throughout the global geopolitical arena leaving many to wonder who staged it and what comes next. Was it Fethullah Gulen, the US government, both Gulen and the US government, someone else or was it Erdogan himself?
One of the glaring suspects of who could possibly have staged the Turkish coup is the American Government. If the American’s were involved, then the question is, “Has Erdogan outlived his usefulness to the US governments foreign policy”…or is there something else going on here?
Regardless of who staged the coup, its failure has given Erdogan the one thing he has been seeking since he first came to office, and that’s “Absolute Power”, which he is now using to purge all opposition against him inside the country. At the moment, that makes Erdogan the sole beneficiary of the coup…staged or failed coup, a dictator has risen.
Erdogan’s Purge in Turkey
Erdogan's political purge of those opposing him is not new and has been ongoing since before the coup was even staged. Anyone or any group that opposed Erdogan before the coup was quickly arrested on a myriad of trumped up charges…However, after the failed coup in Turkey, Erdogan quickly seized the opportunity to purge all his political rivals, especially those connected to his arch enemy Fethullah Gulen, citing that they staged the coup against him.
US / Turkey relationship
Has the US / Turkey relationship changed? That all depends on actions taken by the Turkish government going forward, but at the moment, nothing has really changed except finger pointing and word jousts between Turkish officials and the US government…most of which centers around Erdogan’s political rival Fethullah Gulen and the Turkish governments demand for his extradition from the US due to alleged involvement in the coup.
Of course, words are not something to go by, especially when those words come from Erdogan who has a proven track record of lying, deceit and switching sides to benefit his own cause…as for the US government, I can’t remember a time that they told the truth or were honest about anything, so I don’t expect any real information to come from their words…action however is another story.
One thing remains clear, that the US military still occupies Turkey and has a number of nuclear weapons stationed there…pointed at Russia.
Russia / Turkey Relations
Have Russia / Turkey relations changed? Well, since the Turkish government shot down the Russian aircraft over Syria last year, Russian Turkish relations had turned very sour, however, recently, relations between the two countries have improved after Erdogan’s almost apology for shooting down the Russian jet. But again, we are talking about words…words with a small token of action by Turkey to give up the people who shot down the Russian plane and killed the Russian pilot; People I might add, that Erdogan now claims were associated with Fethullah Gulen and his alleged coup…
What we need to see, that proves Turkey is indeed a friend of Russia, is real action, not just mere words…Action such as informing the US & NATO to pack up their nuclear weapons and leave the country; action by Turkey to close its border with Syria to stop all Turkish involvement in the terrorist assault on the Syrian people. Only this type of action by Turkey will convince me that Erdogan is a true friend of Russia.
Gulen the Convenient Excuse
It seems that Fethullah Gulen is Erdogan’s get out of jail free card at the moment because anything that Erdogan has done illegally can now be blamed on the alleged Gulen putch.
This leads me to believe that we are going to see and hear Erdogan blame all the past terrorist associations of his government in Syria on Gulen including the illegal oil trade Erdogan’s family were directly involved with. Everything will now be conveniently blamed on Gulen, weather true or not…this is why I believe Erdogan referred to Gulen in a speech as, “Gulen and his “terrorists” being a “virus”.
Geopolitical Facts on the Ground
The glaring facts on the ground are that the US and its coalition, which includes Turkey, are facing defeat in their war on Syria; an ongoing defeat, which has dragged Turkey deeper into total chaos and ruin despite their NATO status. Defeat in Syria spells enormous trouble for Turkish President Erdogan if he remains in league with US terrorism in Syria.
Yet, the crafty and astonishingly resilient Erdogan seems to have cast off his isolation with Russia by playing the one card he had left in the geopolitical game, an apology to Russia for shooting down their military aircraft over Syria, thus patching up Russia / Turkey relations…a gesture that also benefits the Russians in the wider game of geopolitics and economic stability of the region if "words" can be believed.
As for the Americans, defeat in Syria is a crushing blow that threatens their global economic empire by virtue of losing control of the oil transit routes from Eurasia & the Middle East to energy dependent Europe, a lifeline that props up the American dollar so long as their puppet regimes sell their energy in US dollars. The Independent energy producers such as Russia and Iran have no interest in selling their energy in US dollars because in reality, the US government has imposed a continuous economic war on them…so why should they sell in US dollars?
Considering that Middle East Oil has powered the US economy for the last seven decades, and allowed the US to become a global economic empire, I’d say that the potential loss of energy transit routes through Syria and Turkey play a truly significant roll in the American empire’s decline.
All the Americans have left in this geopolitical game are aggressive war and covert operation cards…cards that include staged uprisings, regime changes, terrorist infiltration, and World War III…the US empire is on the verge of economic collapse by their own hand and are truly desperate to hang on as the worlds only superpower. That makes them very dangerous. Therefore a loss in Syria by the US and its allies will not go unchallenged, as the US government will do anything to find its way back to controlling the region.
It is very feasible that a coup on Turkey’s leader Erdogan was launched by the US and their Turkish connection in order to replace him with someone more obedient to US dictates. If this is the case, then Erdogan has simply become an unreliable problem for the US and outlived his usefulness, much the same way Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein did in the 1990’s…
Is Turkey distancing itself from the US?
Although Turkey has been a US / NATO player and terrorist supporter in Syria, that may no longer be the case as we see Turkey begin to back away from regime change in Syria while the US & EU ramp up their diplomatic sparring against their ally and NATO partner…however, action speaks louder than words, so again we are all waiting to see what becomes of this trend.
However, there are some interesting developments happening in Turkey at the moment, as the US military at the Incirlik airbase, has become the focus of growing unrest in the country to toss the Americans out due to the role it is alleged to have had in the Turkish coup.
“Know your place!” Erdogan on US official’s reaction to failed coup aftermath – (2016 July 29)
The fact is, that no matter what the US wants, the Erdogan Government in Turkey has the upper hand in deciding the future of those bases which I’m sure will not be removed overnight. They will however, become a source of irritation and hostile backlash by an increasingly “anti-US” Turkish population, should the Americans refuse to leave if told to.
Turkey’s NATO status must certainly hinge on following US Military dictates to the letter regarding US foreign policy, a US foreign policy that no longer benefits the Erdogan regime due to the American’s close association to the Kurds in Syria.
The American Plan “B” in Syria
Erdogan knows only too well how the Americans work with covert operations against regimes they want removed from power. Erdogan's first hand experience over the last five years with the US terrorist operation against the Syrian government should have taught him something…so Erdogan could be on fragile ground with a US backed regime change coup...And now that the US is working closely with the Kurds, Erdogan had not only been isolated from Russia (before the apology), but if true, he became a redundant part of the long term US plan…The US arming the Kurds may have given Erdogan a dose of reality with visions of regime change dancing in his head. Therefore, once Erdogan puts his internal house in its new order, we should expect a shift in Turkey’s actions regarding his position in Syria…that is, if Erdogan has indeed seen the errors of his way…or if indeed the Americans were involved with the coup.
I don’t expect Erdogan will leave NATO as it serves him as a geopolitical safety tool against Russia…Neither will the US throw Turkey out of NATO due to the geopolitical and strategic importance to them...Although the US is very good at arming terrorists to overthrow governments as we have seen throughout the world.
Erdogan Takes Control
The Coup has given Erdogan the means to purge all of his opponents, as well as ridding himself of foreign interference by placing theTurkish Military under government control. No small feat, but a necessary one if Turkey is to become politically independent from foreign interests or to seize total control of the country…this now seems to be the case.
So which way will Turkey go? The logical answer is quite simple…”Follow the Money”. The Eurasian deal is a much safer way for Erdogan to go since the Syrian peoples victory over western terrorism has left Erdogan Isolated with an unreliable American partner who is in full operation of their Plan “B” with their arming of the Kurds for the goal of creating an independent Kurdish state along the Turkish border. Something of a nightmare for Erdogan as American aid (weapons) could spill into Kurdish hands in Turkey as well…
Added to Erdogan’s dilemma is that EU membership is no longer on the table, while US dictatorial occupation is ripping Turkey apart by plunging it into debt & turmoil...this should make for an easy decision on Erdogan’s part to push away from the US, one would think.
So, a temporary, humbling, hat in hand apology to Russia and Erdogan’s no longer isolated by the Americans…and no matter what the Americans might promise now, Erdogan has a better future with Russia since everything Turkey requires can be found on the New Silk Road.
The Turkish Flip Flop
In the end, there is an economic partnership waiting for Turkey with Russia and China that spans the entire region, including a piece of the energy action with pipelines through Turkey to Europe…a Europe I might add that will not be in a position to say nyet to Russian & Iranian Gas and Oil, simply because, they desperately need it.
Diplomatic rift: Erdogan urges US to extradite Muslim clericGulen blamed for coup attempt – (2016 July 16)